Introduction

Background

• Vyborg was part of the autonomous Grand duchy of Finland from 1812 to 1917
• The city had a large Orthodox minority, of which 90% were Russians
• Vyborg was a mid-level hub of commerce and migration in the central place system
• Vyborg connected Eastern Finland to St. Petersburg

Research problem

• Original idea to determine change of segregation
• Problems with data quality
• Determining how much population actually changes necessary

Sources

Parish records

• Most not available
• Vyborg health council reports total population by denomination in yearly reports
• Only available 1905-

Sources for migration

• Lutheran parish in St. Petersburg
• Poll tax register and parish registers both unreliable due to migration

Poll tax registers

• For taxation, also record for voting rights and property ownership
• Senate degree in 1878: from 1880 onward poll tax registers should have columns for non-lutherans
• Religion recorded until 1920s

Problems with sources

• Poll tax register numbers for orthodox population are inconsistent
• Total numbers of orthodox fluctuate too wildly to be real
• Some households with Russian names are marked Orthodox in some years and not in other years

Method

Time series analysis

• statistical methods for working with time series data
• common problems:
  • spectral analysis (finding repeating patterns)
  • shift point analysis (finding a point when a chance happens)
  • autoregression models (how much previous observations affect next observation)
  • moving average methods
  • combinations of the above, e.g. ARMA

Fourier transform

Time series (1)

Time series (2)